How accurate are our FPL projections?

Our projections have been closer to the real points than FPL's own in 3 of 3 gameweeks we've graded, measured by the average miss per player who played. The team our model locks before each deadline has matched or beaten the gameweek average in 0 of 3. Both can be true at once, because a single gameweek is mostly luck. Nothing here is edited after the fact.

Average miss per player, ours against FPL's (lower is better)

The model's locked team

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