How Bear Bones FPL works
How the bear does its sums
We start where the money is. Bookmakers' odds for a match say how many goals each side should score, and we turn that into every scoreline that could happen, not just the likeliest one.
Then we share the goals out. Each player gets his slice of his team's shooting, creating and defending, based on what he has really done. The slice moves with him when he changes club. His old raw numbers don't.
Minutes matter more than anything else, so we work hard on them: who starts, who's injured, what the predicted lineups say, who has a European midweek, and which managers hook their stars once a game is won.
Last of all we add up the points one piece at a time, bonus included, which we simulate from the BPS rather than guess.
Your three calls
Captain is the best bet in your eleven this week. When two players are neck and neck we lean to the premium one, because big names haul more often and their numbers are less of a guess.
Transfer is the one move that helps your team most over the next five weeks. If nothing adds at least a point and a half, we tell you to sit tight. Below that, the model can't honestly tell the difference.
If rebuilding the whole squad beats the best single move by 8 points or more, we tell you it's wildcard time.
Chips tells you what you have left and when each one looks best. Save the Free Hit for a blank gameweek. That's when it really earns its keep.
Fixture difficulty
Every fixture gets a number from 1 to 5. A 1 is a honey pot, an opponent more than 20 percent easier than average. A 5 is a grizzly, more than 20 percent harder. A 3 sits within 5 percent of average, so a run of 3s means ordinary fixtures, not bad ones.
The number is about the opponent and nothing else. Your own team's strength never changes it, so every club is judged on the same scale. Home games are worth about 18 percent more goals, and we show them in capitals instead of baking that into the number.
Attack mode asks how many goals an average side would score against that opponent. Use it for midfielders and forwards. Defence mode asks how often an average side would keep a clean sheet against them. Use it for keepers and defenders.
Badges next to a name
P means first choice on penalties. C means corners and indirect free kicks. F means direct free kicks.
A warning sign means FPL has posted news on him. Hover or tap it to read the note. His projection already allows for it.
Captaincy
We play every fixture 1,500 times and count what happens. Haul is how often he gets 10 points or more. Blank is how often he gets 2 or fewer.
Two players can have the same projection and very different blank rates. If you're chasing, take the one who hauls. If you're protecting a lead, take the one who rarely blanks.
Bull runs and bear markets
The meter is FPL's own price tracker. At 100 percent a player rises and at minus 100 he falls.
Tomorrow is where we think the meter will be by the next update, so you see a move before it happens, not after.
How we grade ourselves
After each gameweek we check every projection against the real scores. Average miss is how far out we were per player who played, so lower is better. FPL's own projection sits next to ours every week, so you can see where we win and where we lose.
Before every deadline we also lock the team the model would pick, and score it afterwards with the captain doubled. Good week or bad, it stays up and it never gets edited.
What the bear can't see
One gameweek is mostly luck. Even a perfect model only edges out season averages at ranking players for a single week, so use the numbers to choose between options rather than to predict a score.
Bookmakers only price the next couple of gameweeks. Beyond that we use our own team ratings, which are good but blunter.
Predicted lineups are educated guesses, not team sheets. They can nudge a player's start chance up or down, but they never overrule what his record says.
Questions people ask
What is Bear Bones FPL?
A Fantasy Premier League tool that tells you who to captain, which transfer to make and when to play your chips, for your own team. You only need your FPL team ID, and you don't sign up.
How are the projections made?
They start from betting-market odds. The odds for each match imply how many goals each side should score, which becomes a full spread of scorelines. Each team's expected goals and clean sheets are then shared between its players according to how much of the team's shooting, creating and defending each one does, weighted by expected minutes.
Is Bear Bones FPL free?
Yes, it's free during the beta. Some features may become paid once it has been tested and proven useful, and that will be announced clearly first.
How accurate is it?
Every gameweek is graded against the real points and against FPL's own projections, and the results are published on the record page, including the weeks it gets wrong.
Is there a Telegram bot?
Yes. It sends your captain, transfer and chip calls a day before every deadline, alerts you when one of your players is injured or changes price, and answers questions like whether a -4 hit is worth it, using the same model.
Who makes it?
BearBet, a betting analytics site. There are no ads and nothing to bet on in Bear Bones FPL.